Factors Determining the Performance of the Indonesian Agricultural Sector in the Era of Climate Change
Factors Determining the Performance of the Indonesian Agricultural Sector in the Era of Climate Change
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OPINION ───────────────────── Factors Determining the Performance of the Indonesian Agricultural Sector in the Era of Climate ChangeInsights for a More Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture Dr. Qiki Qilang Syachbudy The agricultural sector plays a crucial role in Indonesia as a provider of food, a source of employment, and a key driver of economic growth. However, in recent decades, the sector has faced increasing challenges due to climate change, land conversion, and evolving economic dynamics. Understanding the factors that influence agricultural performance is essential to ensure a resilient and sustainable agri-food system for the future. Our study analyzes the determinants of Indonesia’s agricultural sector performance during 1981–2021, focusing on agricultural production and its economic value. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, we examine the short- and long-term relationships between key factors, including agricultural land area, fertilizer usage, economic growth, and greenhouse gas emissions as a proxy for climate change. “Sustainable agriculture in Indonesia requires an integrated approach — strengthening land resources, ensuring fertilizer availability, and fostering inclusive economic growth.” The findings indicate that agricultural land area and economic growth significantly affect the agricultural sector in the long run. In the short term, agricultural land area, economic growth, and fertilizer usage are key factors. Interestingly, climate change, measured by greenhouse gas emissions, did not show a significant negative impact on agricultural decline at the aggregate level. These results highlight the importance of strategic government policies to support a productive, resilient, and sustainable agricultural sector. |
Key Lessons
This study highlights several important lessons. Agricultural land area and economic growth are major determinants of agricultural performance in the long run. In the short run, fertilizer usage also plays a significant role. Although climate change did not have a statistically significant negative impact in this study, its potential risks remain and require continuous attention. Government policies should focus on maintaining agricultural land, ensuring adequate fertilizer supply, and promoting economic sectors that support agricultural sustainability.
Looking Ahead
To secure Indonesia’s food system in the face of climate change, strategic and inclusive policies are essential. Collaboration among government, researchers, and stakeholders is needed to enhance innovation, protect agricultural resources, and strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector for future generations.
Reference
Syachbudy, Q. Q., Syaukat, Y., Achsani, N. A., & Hidayat, N. K. (2025). Factors Determining the Performance of the Indonesian Agricultural Sector in the Era of Climate Change. Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia (JIPI), 30(3), 490–499.
